Category Archives: NFL

Stupid Bets I Might Have Made In Las Vegas

Brandt Snedeker | 50/1 to win the British Open

Why I Made This Bet:

It must have been like three years ago. I was at Bar Louie (obviously sober) with a few buddies from college. My friend AC, who is definitely not reading this, was rooting for Snedeker. I knew absolutely nothing about Snedeker, and I still don’t. But AC is a smart golf mind and hey, 50/1 odds were good, right?

(Not exactly. I’ve seen lines of 70/1 since I made that bet. So as always, research (and less alcohol) helps before making bets.)

Why It Won’t Win: 

Because he took 22nd place with a +1. He was 21 shots off the lead. Almost had it!

For what it’s worth, Henrik Stenson had 30/1 odds while Phil Mickelson was 40/1.

Arizona Cardinals | -165 | +9.5 wins

Why I Made This Bet: 

The Cardinals won 13 games last season.

Bruce Arians is one of the best coaches in the NFL and his hat game is fire. He swears like a pirate and I would imagine he likes to have himself an alcohol or two at times.

The Honey Badger is still there. Players like David Johnson and John Brown are only getting better on offense and there’s a good chance we’ll look back and think, ‘how the hell did Robert Nkemdiche fall to them?

This seems like easy money, which is exactly why it’ll probably lose. But for a team to regress four wins with pretty much the same cast, well, that seems pretty unlikely.

Why It Won’t Win: 

Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald are old and will probably get hurt. Palmer has already torn his ACL like 12 times (twice). He’s 36 years old. If he gets hurt early in the season, so long season. Drew Stanton is fine. But he’s still Drew Stanton.

Eventually, Fitz is going to fall off, right? Maybe not. He just had 1,200 yards for the first time since 2011. But the odds of him repeating that are slim.

As far as the division goes, the Seahawks are still really good. The 49ers are probably going to see a little bit of improvement under Chip Kelly, even if it’s not sustainable long term. The Rams, well, Jeff Fisher is still there, so they’ll probably finish 7-9 because that’s what Jeff Fisher does. But this is a tough division. One major injury or slip up and it’s easy to fall into rebuilding mode. The 49ers were a disaster last season and they were just in the Super Bowl four years ago. Things can change quickly.

Minnesota Vikings | -185 | +9 wins

Why I Made This Bet: 

Because the Vikings are my team and if they don’t win 10 games this season, the hell with it all. They won 10 last season and this is a team on the rise. Teddy Bridgewater is getting better. The wide receiving group isn’t flashy, but they got rid of Mike Wallace who gave about as much effort last season as as my cat does to not be a total dick all the time. Zero.

Plus, this unit is moving indoors! Teddy Two Gloves gets to sling it around US Bank Stadium. We’ve been hard on Teddy, but have you ever tried to throw a football 30 times when it’s five degrees and you’re getting your ass kicked 25 times by 300-pound guys? Me neither, but I imagine it sucks.

The offensive line is better. Andre Smith and Alex Boone were nice additions and really, it can’t get worse than last season. Matt Kalil is probably going to suck again, but whatever. He’s better than Trent Richardson.

Teddy didn’t make the jump we wanted him to, but again, it’s not easy when you’re getting no protection at all. That should improve this season.

Defensively, this is going to be a top-5 unit. Harrison Smith, Xavier Rhodes, Anthony Barr, Linval Joseph, Everson Griffin and Eric Kendricks are studs.

Mike Zimmer is the defensive back whisperer and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Vikings had the best pass defense in the league next season.

(Full disclosure: I forgot Trae Waynes was on the team.)

When it comes to the division, the Packers are still the Packers and that won’t be fun. But the Lions lost Calvin Johnson and I don’t know if I can name more than four players on their offense. The Bears still have Jay Cutler, so that’s not a major concern. Unless the game is ‘What quarterback looks more constipated?’

If we’re playing that game, then I’m scared shitless of the Bears.

Why It Won’t Win: 

Because Adrian Peterson is getting old (31). History tells us that eventually he’s going to fall of.

In related news, Peterson doesn’t believe in history.

Because Norv Turner is 12 years past his prime.

Because Teddy takes a step back and we all realize we might need to draft another quarterback. What if Bridgewater’s ceiling is Sam Bradford? Are we fine with that?

Because the schedule isn’t the easiest for the Vikings. Packers twice, Giants, Texans (a lot of solid additions), Eagles, Redskins, Cardinals, Cowboys, Jags (Bortles is getting better) and Colts (Luck is back).

OK, the schedule actually looks pretty favorable. I need more reasons why this isn’t going to happen otherwise it’s definitely not going to happen.

St. Louis Rams | -145| -7.5 wins

Why I Made This Bet: 

Because the Rams are moving to Los Angeles. Don’t sleep on how that transition can effect a club on the field and in the locker room.

The team is coached by Jeff Fisher who has six winning seasons in 21 as a coach. SIX! That isn’t good! He hasn’t won more than eight games since 2008. Why do we think he’s a good coach? The Rams have won 7, 7, 6 and 7 games, respectively, since Fisher arrived.

But yeah, he’s a great coach. Absolutely.

Winning eight or more games with Case Keenum or a rookie quarterback in one of the best defensive conferences in the NFL? No thanks. Six wins seems about right.

Why It Won’t Win: 

Because Jared Goff is going to be the next big thing. Everything is going to click for him and while some people struggle playing at home (Goff was born in Novato, CA) , Goff will thrive. It helps when you can hand the ball off to a beast like Todd Gurley 25 times a game.

Also, this defense is still really good. A front unit of Robert Quinn, Michael Brockers, Aaron Donald and Quinton Coples is scary as hell. If this team won seven games with Nick Foles and Case Keenum at starting quarterback, can’t Goff get them one more?

St. Louis is going to have a great team when the Rams move back in six years.

Minnesota Vikings | 12/1 to win Super Bowl

Why I Made This Bet: 

First off, 12/1 odds for this is a horrible bet. I did some more research and it looks like some casinos got up to 18/1. But here we are.

I made this bet because it’s the Vikings. My team. Do I think they are going to win the Super Bowl? No, because then you just set yourself up for disappointment. But I do think this is the best team Minnesota has had since 2009 and the Vikings should have won that Super Bowl.

(Excuse me while I finish a liter of vodka.)

The Vikings were one kick away from advancing out of the Wild Card round last season and nearly every position should improve just from natural development. This team should be better than last season’s team.

I also should have had something more than Cheese-Itz for lunch today, but things don’t always go according to plan.

Why It Won’t Win: 

Because on paper, the Patriots, Steelers, Packers, Cardinals and Seahawks look better.

My buddy Joey told me that if I win this bet, it would be the best day of his life. Obviously this has nothing to do with the bet but instead the Vikings winning it all.

To say it would be the best day of his life indicates just how desperate Vikings fans are for a championship.

Joey also got married a year ago, so hopefully his wife isn’t reading this.

I had fun writing this.

Next week I’ll be writing my over/under picks for all 32 NFL teams.

As always, thanks for reading. Enjoy your week.

 

Observations On The Vikings’ Draft… A Week Later

23 overall, WR, Laquon Treadwell, Ole Miss

The pick fills a need.

Does it matter that Treadwell ran a slower time at the Combine? I don’t know. Troy Williamson. That’s all I’ll say because he makes all Vikings’ fans want to stab themselves in the hand with an ice pick. The funny thing is, we’d still be able to catch a ball better than Williamson.

(Oh, burnnnnnnnnnn.)

Side-note: I have a Williamson jersey. I bought it after a 100-yard game he had against the Panthers. I’ve made a lot of bad investments. Fantasy sports.  Creatine that I still have from 2011. Alcohol. Trading cards. This jersey ranks No. 1.

I’ve always been a big fan of you know, just like watching players play football and stuff and seeing if they are good. But I realize college football and the NFL are totally different.

It doesn’t seem like too long ago when Treadwell was considered a top-10 pick, so getting him at 23 is a steal.

Plus, the dude handled himself like a total professional after being drafted. Maybe he didn’t scream and shout, but he brought his daughter to the stage and I don’t know the guy, but he seems pretty mature and responsible for someone who was born in 1995 (my god I’m old).

With him and Stefon Diggs, you’re giving Teddy Bridgewater some options. That plus playing indoors puts Bridgewater on the hot seat more than anyone.

54 overall, CB, Mackensie Alexander, Clemson                          

Does he spell his first name wrong? I don’t know. I ate Doritos for dinner last night, so I’m not here to judge anyone.

The biggest concern is that Alexander didn’t have any interceptions last season. That’s fair. But from everything I’ve read, he didn’t let anyone catch a damn ball either, which is pretty important as a corner, my sources tell me.

The Vikings are deep at corner with Xavier Rhodes, Trae Waynes, Terence Newman and Captain Munnerlyn. Rhodes is a stud, but Newman is getting older, Captain has been up and down and the jury is still out on Waynes.

According to Pro Football Focus, Alexander was the fifth best pick in the draft? What does that mean? I DON’T KNOW BUT WE LOVE STUFF LIKE THIS SO YAY!

121 overall, OT, Willie Beavers, Western Michigan

I don’t know anything about Willie Beavers besides the fact that his name is really awesome or really unfortunate. I can’t tell yet.

It sounds like Beavers is more of a project than anything. He’s probably not going to be a guy who contributes anything this season, but probably next season when Matt Kalil signs with the Cardinals and is awesome.

Personally, I would have liked the team to go after someone who could help win now, perhaps a safety, but you also have to look 12 months down the line. Probably the smart move, not necessarily the sexy move, similiar to wearing your jacket to the bar in the winter.

160 overall, LB, Kentrell Brothers, Missouri

In the fifth round, the Vikings snagged inside linebacker Kentrell Brothers. Not a huge fan of this pack, but then again, I didn’t watch Brothers play one down in college. I’m basing all of my information on what others tell me and whatever I dig up on the internet.

Brothers ran a 4.89 40-yard dash, which ranked 27 out of 31 linebackers in the draft, so that’s not promising. At all.

He did have 152 combined tackles last season playing in the SEC, though, so maybe there’s something. Probably a special teams guy at best.

180 overall, WR, Moritz Böhringer, Germany

GET YOUR No. 81 JERSEYS OUT!

Was this a “gimmick” pick? Maybe, but who the hell cares? It was a sixth-round pick.

There’s the unknown because he’s from Germany, but most of us have some German in us and we turned out OK.

If Boehringer played any other position, he would have been picked higher. The dude ran a 4.43 40-yard dash and had a vertical jump of 39 inches (close to how tall you need to be to ride the Wild Thing at Valley Fair).

According to NFL.com, Boehringer is a “hand catcher” which seems like a good thing to be.

He hasn’t played football for that long, but that might be a good thing. As Ben Franklin once said, “You don’t know what you don’t know.”

And you’d much rather keep Boehringer than deal with Cordarrelle Patterson for another year, right?

A friend of mine who went to the University of Tennessee told me that the Vikings were getting one hell of an athlete with Patterson, maybe the best he’s ever seen.

“But he’s going to drive you absolutely crazy. Just kind of does whatever he wants.”

Ding, ding, ding!

#TeamBoehringer

188 overall, TE, David Morgan, Texas-San Antonio

This is the only photo I could find of Morgan. If this picture is any sign on his future with the team, well, I don’t like his chances. With Kyle Rudolph, MyCole Pruitt and Rhett Ellison still under contract, I really don’t like his chances.

But he was the first University of Texas-San Antonio player to to be drafted into the NFL. So yay!

Still waiting on Tim Riggins.

227 overall, OLB, Stephen Weatherly, Vanderbilt

Weatherly can play both outside linebacker and defensive end and in today’s NFL, that’s important.

According to NFL.com, his NFL comparison is Quanterus Smith and I don’t know who that is.

This might not end well.

244 overall, S, Jayron Kearse, Clemson

His uncle is Jevon Kearse, so he kind of already wins.

But read this note from NFL.com:

“He’s a big guy, but he just doesn’t make many plays. You see him out there just drifting around sometimes and you just wish he had the same attitude and fire that the rest of that defense has because he could be so much better. Do you draft him on traits and hope your coaches reach him?”

Hope your coaches reach him? Did you just double dare Mike Zimmer? THAT SOUNDS LIKE A DOUBLE DARE AND MIKE ZIMMER ACCEPTS!

He probably won’t make the team, but it’s worth a try, especially since he will have a little bit of familiarity with Alexander.

That’s all I’ve got, friends. Talk to you soon.

 

NFL Divisional Round Picks | Do The Steelers Have A Chance?

Kansas City at New England

Are the Chiefs good? I have no idea.

Any team that wins 11 straight games in the NFL is probably pretty good, but the only really impressive wins the Chiefs have on their resume are against the Steelers in Week 7 and the Broncos in Week 10.

And guess what, KC fans? Those weren’t really all that impressive now that we look back. The Steelers were starting Landry Jones.

The Broncos had Peyton Manning, but Manning threw four interceptions on 20 attempts, leaving the game with a foot injury.

Again, 11 straight wins is something you can’t take away from any NFL team. And how the hell does a team get better after losing its best player (Jamaal Charles)? It’s happened to the Seahawks, too, and I don’t understand, which is probably why they are professional athletes and I ate Cheez-Its for dinner last night. It sounds like Jeremy Maclin will be out, so maybe that’s a good thing? I don’t know anymore.

This will be the biggest test for the Chiefs. It sounds like the Patriots will have Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski back, even though there’s a 120 percent chance Gronk won’t be able to walk in 10 years.

For any other team, inserting guys back into the lineup would be problematic. Maybe the team presses too much to get him involved in the offense. For the Patriots that won’t be problem because they’re the effing Patriots. This is what they do. Put in the popcorn boy at wide receiver and watch him rack up 120 yards. Jesus. It’s almost unfair.

This is a tougher game to pick than it appears, but I don’t see Tom Brady and the Patriots losing at home. It won’t be a blowout because Kansas City’s defense is too good and I’m not sure if New England’s is.

Patriots 28, Chiefs 24

Green Bay at Arizona

Man, we really underrated how good Jordy Nelson was, huh?

Randall Cobb is a nice player, but he’s not a No. 1 guy and Davante Adams (who isn’t playing in this game) might be Aaron Rodgers’ least-favorite human being. And then there’s Eddie Lacy who’s just busy eating everything.

The Packers aren’t a good team. Last weekend’s win over the Redskins was fine, but let’s not forget that the Redskins haven’t beat a team with a winning record this season.

Rodgers is great, but he hasn’t mastered the Brady tool of turning shit into fool’s gold yet.

The Packers lost 38-8 to the Cardinals in Week 16 and I’m not so sure it’s going to go any better for the Packers fans this time around.

The Cardinals are without the Honey Badger, but with Green Bay’s limited offense, they can probably get by. Arizona has the smartest coach left in the NFC and probably the smartest quarterback as well. David Johnson is a freaking beast and Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown and Michael Floyd are all receivers who could go for 100-plus yards.

Hopefully my Packer-loving roommate isn’t reading this.

It’s just the truth.

Cardinals 35, Packers 13

Seattle at Carolina

JUST MAKE THE FIELD GOAL, BLAIR! TWENTY SEVEN YARDS! MY GOD!

OK. I’m done.

People are still calling the Seahawks the hottest team in the NFC but let’s not forget that they lost to the shitty Rams in Week 16 and scored just 10 points last week. With that being said, this is a huge challenge for the Panthers and I’m guessing most people think the Seahawks will win.

Is Marshawn Lynch playing? If you’re a Seattle fan, do you want him to play? I’m not quite sure.

This might be the best game to watch over the weekend, and of course it’s on at noon on Sunday. Why not put this game at 7 p.m. on Sunday? Whatever.

Russell Wilson should scare Panthers fans. He’s rolling right now, but Josh Norman should be able to shut down Doug Baldwin.

If you’re starting a franchise, do you take Wilson or Cam Newton? That’s a legitimate question.

This might be the game when Carolina’s lack of wide receivers comes back to bite the Panthers. Ted Ginn Jr. can’t be the best wide receiver for a Super Bowl team, right? Greg Olsen is great and if the Seahawks line Kam Chancellor on him, the Panthers should try to take advantage of that – something the Vikings did too late in last week’s game.

The Seahawks are my least-favorite team in the NFL, mostly because they think God wants them to win more than any other team. If God is cheering for football teams, we are probably all doomed.

I don’t know who has the edge here but I’m cheering for the Panthers. I’m also cheering for a Richie Sherman meltdown.

Panthers 31, Seahawks 28

Pittsburgh at Denver

The Steelers had 13-1 odds to win the Super Bowl going into the playoffs. With weapons like Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and a soon-to-be healthy running back in DeAngelo Williams, it seemed like a great value bet.

But now everyone is hurt and the odds are not in the Steelers’ favor.

Big Ben probably can’t throw more than 20 yards right now. Williams isn’t going to play. Brown is concussed thanks to Adam Pac Man Jones, who in my opinion, should be suspended just for being a terrible person. But Greg Hardy played 10 games last season, so that’s not going to happen.

If you’re a Steelers fan, your hope is that Peyton Manning implodes and throws duck-after-duck, putting Pittsburgh’s offense in good position. And that’s a very possible thing. It would be an incredible sad way for Manning to go out, but this is how far he’s fallen. He’s still probably the smartest quarterback in the league, but the physical tools aren’t there anymore. Manning threw nine touchdowns and 17 interceptions this season.

THAT’S NOT GOOD!

Denver’s defense, though, is good, and with Pittsburgh’s beat-up offense, this could be a dream for the Broncos.

I don’t think so, though. Roethlisberger heals faster than any human should and seems to always find ways to win games he probably shouldn’t.

I think this is one of those games.

(I immediately regret this decision.)

Steelers 17, Broncos 14

That’s all I’ve got for today. Enjoy your weekend.